Why Trump Started the War in Iran. On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a large-scale joint military operation against Iran called “Epic Fury”.
President Trump stated three main reasons in his address:
- Iran was allegedly approaching the creation of nuclear weapons and had rejected all diplomatic proposals.
- An “imminent threat” to American troops and allies in the region.
- Long-term U.S. policy: “Iran will never be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons.”
Israel described the operation as a preemptive strike to eliminate an existential threat.
What Experts and Facts Say
Most serious analysts (CFR, Atlantic Council, RAND, Reuters, The New York Times) consider the official version incomplete.
Real motives behind the war, according to March 2026 sources:
- Israel’s main goal: Completely destroy Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and significantly weaken its regional influence (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis).
- Trump’s goals: Support for Israel, demonstration of strength to his voters, and a possible regime change in Tehran. Netanyahu actively lobbied for the strike, using his close personal relationship with Trump.
- Experts note: There was no direct “imminent nuclear threat.” Iran’s nuclear program had already been significantly weakened by previous sanctions and strikes in 2025. This war was largely a war of choice, not necessity.
Global Economic Consequences of the War in Iran
The conflict immediately hit global energy markets. Here are the key effects as of March 27, 2026:
| Country / Region | Consequences | Winner / Loser |
|---|---|---|
| Russia | +€6–7.7 billion in just two weeks from higher oil prices | Major Winner |
| India & China | Sharp increase in purchases of cheap Russian oil | Winners |
| Europe | Higher gasoline and gas prices, rising inflation | Losers |
| United States | Rising gasoline prices (over $4 per gallon), political pressure on Trump | Mixed |
| Asia (Japan, Korea) | Sharp increase in oil and LNG import costs | Losers |
| Global Economy | High volatility, risk of stagflation | — |
Key:
- Brent crude surged from ~$70 to $100–120 per barrel in the first days, then partially retreated amid negotiations.
- Even partial disruption of the Strait of Hormuz caused the largest energy shock since the 1970s.
- Russia received an unexpected financial boost for its war budget at the exact moment when the West was trying to strangle it with sanctions.
Why Trump Started the War in Iran
The war in Iran is a classic example of how a public pretext (“nuclear threat”) hides deeper geopolitical and economic goals. While Trump sought to demonstrate strength and support Israel, the war unexpectedly helped Russia continue its war in Ukraine by driving up oil prices.
Forecast for the coming months:
- If Trump’s negotiations with Iran yield results, oil prices may drop below $90–95 per barrel.
- If the Strait of Hormuz remains unstable, prices will stay high ($100+), continuing to fund the Russian military budget.
- Long-term: Iran and Israel are likely to remain bitter enemies for decades. This will create permanent instability in the Middle East and new risks for the global economy.
Sources:
- Reuters, March 20, 2026 — How Trump’s stated reasons for Iran war have shifted https://www.reuters.com/world/how-trumps-stated-reasons-iran-war-have-shifted-2026-03-20/
- The New York Times, March 2, 2026 — How Trump Decided to Go to War With Iran https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/02/world/middleeast/trump-iran-war-decision.html
- The Guardian, March 12, 2026 — Russia pocketing billions from Iran war oil windfall https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/12/russia-pocketing-billions-iran-war-oil
- Euronews / CREA, March 2026 — Russia earned €6–7.7 bn from fossil fuels since start of Iran war https://www.euronews.com/2026/03/25/russia-earned-billions-from-iran-war
- CNN, March 23–25, 2026 — Oil prices reaction to Trump–Iran talks and Hormuz tensions https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/25/energy/oil-prices-iran-war/index.html