Russian sabotage and hybrid attacks in Europe, an in-depth investigation by the Associated Press shows that Russia’s sabotage and diversion campaign across Europe has become a systematic element of hybrid warfare. These operations cost Moscow very little and involve minimal risk, yet they severely overload European intelligence services and law enforcement agencies, draining critical security resources across the EU.
The AP investigation analyzed 145 documented incidents, including arson attacks, explosions, vandalism, cyberattacks, and other hostile acts. Only cases with verified links to Russia, its proxy operatives, or its ally Belarus were included.
Russian Covert Operations in Europe
Over the course of a year, AP journalists interviewed more than 40 officials from European governments and NATO across 13 countries. The findings indicate that the primary targets were countries bordering Russia or playing a leading role in supporting Ukraine.
Countries most frequently targeted:
- 🇵🇱 Poland
- 🇪🇪 Estonia
- 🇱🇻 Latvia
- 🇩🇪 Germany
- 🇫🇷 France
- 🇬🇧 United Kingdom
Among the most notable incidents were arson attacks on warehouses in the UK storing satellite communication equipment for Ukraine, attacks on commercial facilities in Estonia, and an explosion on a railway line in Poland linking the country with Ukraine.
Russian Sabotage Against European States
The investigation identified a clear escalation pattern in Russia’s hybrid operations:
| Year | Arson and Explosive Attacks | Vandalism | Key Observations |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1 incident | — | Initial testing phase |
| 2024 | 26 incidents | ≥3 | Sharp escalation |
| 2025 | ≥6 incidents | ≥1 | Campaign resumes |
AP stresses that the real numbers are likely higher, as many incidents remain undisclosed for months while authorities work to establish attribution.
How Russia’s Hybrid Warfare Model Works
According to European intelligence officials, Russian operations rarely involve trained intelligence officers directly. Instead, Moscow relies on an outsourced sabotage model.
Core elements of this model:
- recruitment of individuals with criminal backgrounds;
- use of intermediaries and recruiters;
- employment of foreign nationals with no official ties to Russia;
- remote coordination and operational control.
Russian Special Operations in Europe
- minimal financial costs;
- reduced legal and political risk;
- plausible deniability;
- continuous depletion of EU security resources.
One senior European intelligence official told AP that investigating Russian hybrid interference now consumes as much time and manpower as counterterrorism efforts.
Tactical Pause and Political Calculations
At the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025, several intelligence sources observed a temporary decline in sabotage activity. Officials believe Moscow may have slowed operations to avoid antagonizing the new administration of U.S. President Donald Trump. However, the campaign has since resumed at full intensity.
Russian Covert Warfare Across Europe
Although many of the documented incidents caused limited physical damage, their strategic impact is significant:
- intelligence and police resources are overstretched;
- vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure are exposed;
- public trust in security institutions erodes;
- long-term resilience of European societies weakens.
Conclusion: The Consequences of Inaction
If such systematic violations of national and international law are not met with a coordinated and decisive response, sabotage risks becoming a normalized instrument of foreign policy. Over time, Europe may face escalating destabilization, higher security costs, and diminished capacity to counter more severe threats.
Ignoring hybrid warfare today creates far greater dangers tomorrow.